15 Mutas is 1500 minerals and gas. That's 15 Sentries for you who RAPE mutas, and you'll want Sentries anyway. You also saved 750 minerals which you can use to build 5 cannons which will stop Nydus worms and burrow roaches too. Its a completely worthwhile investment.
I have no idea where you're getting this idea that fast forge = self contain and lose to his expanding. One of the most common pro Protoss builds right now is to simply wall off with a forge and gateway and use warp-in to push out in complete safety. 2 Cannons behind the wall crushes any Zerglings and Roaches. Its a completely viable and effective tactic.
I'm not advocating spamming 50 cannons. That's just stupid. But a few (like 6) around important parts of your base are more than enough for full base defense to let your army stay mobile outside.





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