I think the real question at hand is not about what Raynor believes and how that would affect Kerrigan but what Kerrigan believes alone. Why would Kerrigan take Raynor's dismissal of the prophecy to heart when she knows in truth that the potential threat it speaks of (and it's possible solution) is real?
Whoops, I probably should have worded that properly. I should have said, "in context of the above" rather than "either way".
Kerrigan should have known that Zeratul was the instigator of Raynor's stay of hand regarding Kerrigan in WoL (whether you like/include it or not - knowing your position on the Protoss stuff in WoL, FT, I take it as the latter) and that Zeratul actually intends to have her live. I know that the storyline about Raynor finding redemption without a plot gimmick of being "saviour of the galaxy" (which is what the Protoss portion in WoL essentially serves as) seems to fit your notion of WoL being "not so bad in story terms" but one has to consider that even without the Protoss stuff in WoL, the way in which Raynor achieves this redemption is through yet another another plot gimmick in the deus ex machina effect of the artifact on Kerrigan and the forced conceit in that "he just somehow lost his interest in wanting to kill her for some reason".
As to the claim of Zeratul being the most deadliest assassin, would Kerrigan even have had a chance to notice Zeratul and even attack him in the first place in HotS? In WoL, it is Kerrigan who gets the drop on Zeratul but in HotS, Zeratul has the initiative before Kerrigan realises he's there. It's much like the inanity of Raynor's ill-conceived raid on the Bucephalus where Valerian doesn't even bother to announce his intentions. In this case, we have Zeratul not even bothering to warn Kerrigan of his intentions and nearly gets himself killed for the trouble. Poor communications kills (oh hey, that's another overused trope), people!!





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