Economics

[TheEconomist]

*ehem*

No.

[TheEconomist]

Oh hai Squibb.

http://business.time.com/2012/11/30/...-style-crisis/

[TheEconomist]

My last post was five months ago. What's happened since then?

1) North and South Korea are officially at war, although, granted, you'd never know it. Nevertheless, big brother US still has to send in stealth bombers.

2) China has committed numerous acts of war on Japan, America, and surrounding countries that, if Russia or the US would have done during the Cold War, would have been suicide.

3) The European crisis has steadily gotten worse as opposed to better even though the majority of the world had put the crisis behind them.

4) The American economy has steadily gotten better at a progressively faster pace and has outperformed the average analyst's expecations for thirteen months now. Its stock market has been one of the best performers in the world, out performing even the countries growing at close to double digits.

5) Gold has been one of the worst performing assets (I'm not sure we argued this on this forum but every always flamed me for suggesting otherwise years ago.)

6) The Chinese real estate bubble (and by relation Canada and Australian real estate/commodites) has gotten progressively gotten worse and even has its own '60 Minutes' episode. Remember when I said that it would be catastrophic for the Chinese and harmful for Canada/Australia? It was smaller back then. Didn't someone argue here that the government would be able to slow pop the bubble? The last time such an obvious bubble got so much attention it was in 1993 when people wondered if Japan actually was going to surpass America, three years after their banks had collapsed and the causes of this collapse had happened five years prior.

7) In order to cope with uncompetitiveness, Europe is having to scale back from its precious socialism, almost across the board. Seems like Socialism isn't competitive. If only there were other economies that had a collapsed in the past that could've told us this would happen.

Meanwhile, Squibb's prediction that the American economy would spiral down into catastrophe resulting in a civil war the likes of which we world has never seen, has yet to take shape.

[Visions of Khas]

I've been keeping up with the North Korean threats and they've been a laugh a day. Their propaganda machine is tireless. But I think to myself, what if my perception is just due to my country's propaganda machine? Unfortunately I'm just not interested or invested in the topic enough to dig too deep, so I can't say either way, though I'm inclined to think it's Li'l Kim basically trolling the country, the goal being to frame himself as a successful leader. Buuut -- that's just what NPR wants me to think!! *dun dun duuuun*

What're your thoughts on it, TE? And does it even matter? I'm against doing anything to Korea; I've read their economy is so abysmal that, were we to topple the DPRK, China and S Korea would have to put up with an untenable refugee crisis. Again, valid or not?

[TheEconomist]

North Korea is a joke. However, it is a puppet state of China, which makes it somewhat dangerous, but not for now. Continue to laugh away for at least a few months more. Take my word with a grain of salt though. I have no interest in analyzing North Korea or the Middle-east so my opinions are worthless on them.

I can answer from the economics perspective though. Taking in the North Korean refugees would cripple any economy that takes them in. For example, when West Germany took in East Germany, it was a huge burden on the German economy. Even in my home city of Miami, where we took in masses of Cuban refugees, is a good example of the burden of a sudden influx of refugees. This would be about 1,000x worse though. It's hard to say how much help the Chinese would give the refugees, though, considering, you know, they don't do all that much for their own citizens, but, for South Korea, atleast, in the short term, it would definitely be a crisis. In the long term, though, I can't see how Korea being reunified wouldn't be good for Korea and the world. Slightly bad for China's sphere of influence, but only slightly. China has very little influence and doesn't really even seem to desire much influence. Through out their history, their ambition has always been to be revered and worshipped, not to involve itself in other countries like the West.

As an aside, North Korea actually has a news site for English readers. I made an evening of reading this propaganda

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

If Western coverage on the matter ever gets boring, this is the perfect remedy.

Servicepersons of my unit will reduce to ashes not only the U.S. mainland but its military bases on Hawaii, Guam and other regions, under the plan for firepower strike finally examined and ratified by the respected Supreme Commander."

All of my classmates have volunteered to join the army. We promised each other to meet again as heroes after performing feats in the all-out [victorious] action against the U.S."

The US imperialist pig makes a massive mistake in not only underestimating the military strength of the DPRK, but also by underestimating the strength and resolve of the people of the DPRK. They use weapons against the DPRK which would crush the US military and the American people ten times over, yet they have little or no effect on the unbeatable DPRK, KPA or the people of the DPRK.

I'm not sure what its propaganda used to be like, but most of the articles I read spoke as if nuclear war were impossible to avoid and would begin very soon. The tone, in my mind, is set up in a way that the government itself would look weak if it were to back off which seems strange for such a government to do if it did mean to back off. So, I could be underestimating the threat but its hard to take seriously, especially for me as an America where I'm used to these kinds of threats somewhere daily and even the most optimistic estimates say that North Korea could, at best, barely hit Alaska, no where else.

Those poor Polar Bears. Global warming taking away their glaciers and now this. I wonder when they will rise up against us.

[TheEconomist]

LOL, WTF happened.

[DemolitionSquid]

Everything is inevitable given enough time and stardust.

[TheEconomist]

Luckily for me, I guess, I won't be alive when your prediction comes true. My children neither most likely.

[Hawki]

Usually keep away from politics, but looking at the propaganda site, I have to wonder - IMO, it seems like a North Korea bluff. US and South Korea have military exercises, North Korea makes the threats. Exercises end, North Korea gets to claim that its threats of force were what caused them to end. People in North Korea praise their leader for driving off the imperialist pigs, rest of the world just shakes their heads and moves on with life.

Or that's just me anyway.

[DemolitionSquid]

NK is crazy but not stupid. The only possible reasoning for this aggression is the propaganda to make Un seem more "legit."

Ultimately they're just being Chihuahua's. They bark and bark until another bigger dog bites back, then they slink away and act like victims.