The ladder is going to be a very different place for Season 2

[Asfastasican]

you call street fighter e-sports? this shows you have no clue what you are talking about.

Its like calling throwing stone an athletic competition. Get a grip man and don't write nonsense.

I'm telling you if there aren't big numbers of people playing there can not be e-sports.

Daigo should beat your face in.

[dustinbrowder]

Update: Latest TSL day 4 streams had its highest number of viewers yet, which was still only 50.000 people.

From what I've gathered the korean gomTV stream had about 150.000 but I need a fluid speaking korean to confirm that.

The VODS have so far had an average of about 20.000 people watch them.

So basically in the whole world(outside korea) there are only 70.000 people watching SC2 matches currently and the TSL3 is one of the biggest tournaments outside korea with very big prize money.

Just goes to show that is a game is to succeed as an e-sports it needs more viewers, it needs more mainstream attention and it needs to be more accessible to people.

[evillesh]

Update: Latest TSL day 4 streams had its highest number of viewers yet, which was still only 50.000 people.

From what I've gathered the korean gomTV stream had about 150.000 but I need a fluid speaking korean to confirm that.

The VODS have so far had an average of about 20.000 people watch them.

So basically in the whole world(outside korea) there are only 70.000 people watching SC2 matches currently and the TSL3 is one of the biggest tournaments outside korea with very big prize money.

Just goes to show that is a game is to succeed as an e-sports it needs more viewers, it needs more mainstream attention and it needs to be more accessible to people.

well yeah, but don't you think that 1 million viewers won't pop out out of nothing? it will take some time to build up a viewer base.

[Gifted]

DB, can you define the term "Succeed" in this case. I think that's part of the problem with my discussion with you at this point. I believe that we both may view the term "succeed" in different angles. (I kinda touched on this in my previous post)

[MulletBen]

Now take the fact that 1/4 are interested in competitive matches of those 5 million, only 5% out of the 1/4 are skilled enough to play it competitively and about only 1% want to compete at a semi or fully professional level.

That leaves about 1000 people that are competing in competitions that are "e-sports"

Ah, yes, the well recognized, common knowledge, no-citation needed fact that exactly 1/4 of people who play starcraft are interested in competitive matches.

Get those numbers out of here. I have no idea where they came from, but they certainly smell like ass.

If I had the time to make a excel table you'll notice that all SC2 events viewership are on the decline instead of upraise. This is what I call diminishing returns,

That's interesting, I like to call diminishing returns: The tendency for a continuing application of effort or skill toward a particular project or goal to decline in effectiveness after a certain level of result has been achieved.
A definition which can only be applied to this situation by careful misinterpretations.

at some point in the not so distant future SC2 is going to be a small niche of random bunch of people playing games and not e-sports.

Oh man, I see a trend! I assume that this trend will continue at the same rate forever.

Ever hear of exponential decay?

Now based on a fast and small spreadsheet I did in order for the number of viewers to stagnate and be at an constant level, SC2 needs more than 1 million people per region or it means SC2 must either sell 10 million copies and spread that way or other means like totally average people hearing or seeing a SC2 match and start to like to watch.

There are a lot of numbers here, based on the assumption that there needs to be 1-million people involved in the game for it to be a sport.

But again the point is that it needs around 1 million people, it can be +/- 3% difference.

...

Update: Latest TSL day 4 streams had its highest number of viewers yet, which was still only 50.000 people.

From what I've gathered the korean gomTV stream had about 150.000 but I need a fluid speaking korean to confirm that.

The VODS have so far had an average of about 20.000 people watch them.

So basically in the whole world(outside korea) there are only 70.000 people watching SC2 matches currently and the TSL3 is one of the biggest tournaments outside korea with very big prize money.

Just goes to show that is a game is to succeed as an e-sports it needs more viewers, it needs more mainstream attention and it needs to be more accessible to people.

No, this just goes to show that SC2 as a sport has about 70,000 people watching outside of Korea. THIS PROVES EXACTLY ZERO ABOUT HOW MANY VIEWERS AN ESPORT NEEDS TO SUCCEED. YOU ARE DRWAING CONCLUSIONS OUT OF NOWHERE, THEN THROWING SEEMINGLY RELATED BUT TANGENTIAL FACTS AND ASS-PULLED NUMBERS.

Seriously, you've made a bunch of posts, and not one of them proves that there must be 1 million viewers, or even comes close to a line of logic that would lead to proving that 1 million viewers are needed. As such, it comes down to nothing but your opinion, and frankly, as far as you opinion is concerned, I'm inclined to disagree.

[dustinbrowder]

DB, can you define the term "Succeed" in this case. I think that's part of the problem with my discussion with you at this point. I believe that we both may view the term "succeed" in different angles. (I kinda touched on this in my previous post)

Yes. When 1 million people watch SC2 I'd call that a success.

Heck me running naked on the street is going to gather more than 50.00 viewers, in fact when TV news stations get a hold of a video I'd probably will have 50 million viewers.

I mean come on, looking at it from every angle, 70.000 is not very successful.

[evillesh]

Yes. When 1 million people watch SC2 I'd call that a success.

so, it's just your opinion, not a formula or statement that proves that something can be successful or not.

[JackhammerIV]

Well....
http://www.gomtv.net/2011gstl2/vod/63470
GSTL finals 220,000 views on VOD

Code S finals for GSL March
http://www.gomtv.net/2011gslsponsors2/vod/63200
250,000 views on VOD

So you could say the rough number of foreign paying members to Gom's English service is probably above 200,000. The most conservative you could estimate it is 150,000. That's just the paying members who watched the VOD. Still not sure how many watch it live. And GSL has been put on Korean TV so probably need someone to try find how many people in Korea tuned in for it.

Then the gsl world championship is happening now and is streaming and providing VODs for free. The finals of that might provide another data point for the number of people outside Korea interested in watching SC2.

[TheEconomist]

@DB: Which do you consider more successful: a YouTube video demonstrating and explaining the Universe Membrane Theory which received 3,000 views or a video in which an attractive girl with a low-cut top talks about how Stacy is such a slut that received 13,000,000 views? (Real example, by the way. Just don't remember links.)

Your answer to this question would be more informative than all your posts combined and would make it clear whether or not you've actually thought your statements through. If popularity is all you care about, StarCraft 2 is already a great success and can only get better. If you require quality of players, then that is independent of popularity, hence, why people keep telling you you could have a system in place with 50,000 total players and it still generate as much eSport entertainment as if it had 10,000,000. Therefore, all of your fuzzy math is irrelevant and has no meaning other than being a nice number to hear that you seem to place value on without knowing what it actually means.

And, in case you didn't know, a person doesn't have to play StarCraft to be interested in eSports. In Korea, far more people watch StarCraft than play it on any regular basis. Likewise, in the Western world, frequently watching a match has become much more common among casuals (and, therefore, numbers) without playing has become far more common than it used to be before StarCraft 2.

.

[dustinbrowder]

@DB: Which do you consider more successful: a YouTube video demonstrating and explaining the Universe Membrane Theory which received 3,000 views or a video in which an attractive girl with a low-cut top talks about how Stacy is such a slut that received 13,000,000 views? (Real example, by the way. Just don't remember links.)

Your answer to this question would be more informative than all your posts combined and would make it clear whether or not you've actually thought your statements through. If popularity is all you care about, StarCraft 2 is already a great success and can only get better. If you require quality of players, then that is independent of popularity, hence, why people keep telling you you could have a system in place with 50,000 total players and it still generate as much eSport entertainment as if it had 10,000,000. Therefore, all of your fuzzy math is irrelevant and has no meaning other than being a nice number to hear that you seem to place value on without knowing what it actually means.

And, in case you didn't know, a person doesn't have to play StarCraft to be interested in eSports. In Korea, far more people watch StarCraft than play it on any regular basis. Likewise, in the Western world, frequently watching a match has become much more common among casuals (and, therefore, numbers) without playing has become far more common than it used to be before StarCraft 2.

.

I'd call the video with the 13 million views more successful. its got more viewers. Which is more important? Obviously 13 million people think its more important.

As to what I think should be more successful that is a different story. I'd say listening to some slut talk about her GF being a slut is a waste of times unless she is half naked, which you said she is, so judging by the fact she is naked probably is going to be more important than the explanation of the universe.

EDIT: There, you see I'm not ignoring your posts, at least not 100% of them.