The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Receiving incoming Wall of Text . . .

THE ZERG PROBLEM

Introduction

Everybody's been talking about it since the Zerg were first unveiled. This vague underwhelming quality that is usually associated with a lack of revamped units . . . the Zerg are plain not as interesting, in whole, as the other races of StarCraft 2 -- or so people say.

Is there something to it, though? That's what I was wondering when I set out to put the numbers where our mouths have been for a long time. Are there some statistics that will once and for all point us to the problem with the Zerg race -- if there really is one -- and, if so, will they also point us toward a solution?

I expect that some of the decisions in this article will seem subjective; when so many units and so many opinions are concerned, that's inevitable. But I'll be more than happy to argue why I counted anything the way I did, and revise the statistics if that turns out to be necessary.

The Numbers

Units total -- unit count not counting summonables and/or workers.
New/significantly changed -- inevitably somewhat subjective; new units are obvious, significant changes are those that alter a unit's role to such a degree that it might as well have been a completely different one. Removing functionality from a unit (Overlord) does not qualify as significant change for the purposes of this analysis.
Old/minor changes -- inevitably somewhat subjective; old units are obvious, minor changes are those that perform almost the same role, although they may be better or worse at it.
Harassment -- easily enough told in most cases. Those units that proactive strategies can be built around.
Cliff-Walkers -- these are the ground units that can cross cliffs easily.
Siege -- units that out-range base defenses.
Defensive -- these are the units that are best kept inside your base 90% of the time; basically, they are neither martial units nor martial spellcasters. Their abilities, if any, concern macro.
Scouts -- these are the units that cannot fight and are scouts exclusively.

TERRAN
12 units total
(Marine, Marauder, Reaper, Ghost, Hellion, Siege Tank, Thor, Viking, Banshee, Medivac, Raven, Battlecruiser)
9 units new/significantly changed
(Marauder, Reaper, Ghost, Hellion, Thor, Viking, Banshee, Medivac, Raven)
3 units old/not changed/minor changes
(Marine, Siege Tank, Battlecruiser)
6 units potent harassers
(Reaper, Ghost, Hellion, Viking, Banshee, Raven)
2 units cliff-walkers
(Reaper, Viking)
3 units siege
(Ghost, Siege Tank, Battlecruiser)
0 units defensive
0 units scouts

75% units new/significantly changed
25% units old/not changed/minor changes
50% units potent harassers
16% units cliff-walkers
25% units siege
0% units defensive
0% units scouts

PROTOSS
14 units total
(Zealot, Stalker, Disruptor, Immortal, High Templar, Dark Templar, Archon, Observer, Colossus, Warp Prism, Phoenix, Warp Ray, Carrier, Mothership)
8 units new/significantly changed
(Stalker, Disruptor, Immortal, Colossus, Warp Prism, Phoenix, Warp Ray, Mothership)
6 units old/not changed/minor changes
(Zealot, High Templar, Dark Templar, Archon, Observer, Carrier)
7 units potent harassers
(Stalker, Disruptor, Dark Templar, Colossus, Warp Prism, Phoenix, Warp Ray)
2 units cliff-walkers
(Stalker, Colossus)
2 units siege
(Colossus, Carrier)
0 units defensive
1 units scouts
(Observer)

57% units new/significantly changed
43% units old/not changed/minor changes
43% units potent harassers
14% units cliff-walkers
7% units siege
0% units defensive
7% units scouts

ZERG
13 units
(Zergling, Baneling, Roach, Hydralisk, Queen, Overlord, Overseer, Infestor, Corruptor, Brood Lord, Lurker, Ultralisk)
6 units new/significantly changed
(Baneling, Roach, Queen, Overseer, Infestor, Corruptor)
7 units old/not changed/minor changes
(Zergling, Hydralisk, Overlord, Brood Lord, Lurker, Ultralisk)
3 units potent harassers
(Zergling, Mutalisk, Infestor)
0 units cliff-walkers
2 units siege
(Brood Lord, Lurker)
2 units defensive
(Queen, Overlord)
2 units scouts
(Overlord, Overseer)

46% units new/significantly changed
54% units old/not changed/minor changes
23% units potent harassers
0% units cliff-walkers
15% units siege
15% units defensive
15% units scouts
33% of new/significantly changed units are defensive/scouts

Code:

STATISTICS COMPARED - % T. P. Z. Changed 75 57 46 Unchanged 25 43 54 Harassment 50 43 23 Cliff-Walk 16 14 0 Siege 25 7 15 D/S 0 14 33

A few pre-emptive counter-jabs regarding my classifications:

Where's the Nydus Worm? The Nydus Worm cannot move. It is a far more interesting version of the Nydus Canal -- but "far more interesting" does not make it a unit.
The Warp Prism can't even attack and it's a potent harasser? Warp-In makes this a very difficult call to make. Do I give Protoss the "1" harasser for Warp Prism, which enables other units to harass, or do I give them a point each for Zealots, High Templar, and Immortals, who can now appear in the middle of an enemy base at a second's notice? It's not clear-cut, but something seemed warranted. I took the conservative approach.
The Overlord's a completely different unit now! Yeah, because it is less functional than ever before. I understand why the change was necessary, and I agree with making it -- but for the purposes of this analysis, "significant change" is something people can get excited about. People aren't going to come up with new Overlord tactics due to it losing Detection.
The Brood Lord comes from a completely different unit! So does the Archon, but we're not really going to count that, are we?
The Brood Lord spawns mantalings! Does that change the way the unit will be used? No. It's an added bonus to the way Guardians already played. No different from the Marines' +15 HP upgrade, except that it is more visible.

What Does it Mean?

You might be wondering what the point of statistics like the last is. "40% of new/significantly changed units are defensive/scouts." Well, when we take into account that a majority of Zerg units are incredibly similar to their SC1 counterparts, we can see that of those that ARE new, there's just not that much to be excited about. A scout -- even an interesting one -- is still only a scout. You're not going to make an entire army out of him. Not even a partial army of him. A defensive unit -- even one with great macro potential -- is still only a defensive unit. You're not going to make an army out of him, he's not even going to be in your army. For every one of these that takes up a slot in the Zerg line-up -- Terrans have none -- the other units have to be even more interesting... and here is the entire issue.

The units left available to create your army all fall back on the tried-and-true. The Zerglings and the Hydralisks. The Mutalisks and the Ultralisks. While the Zerg may have gained interesting functionality outside of combat, in combat, in many ways they are fundamentally no different from their SC1 counterparts. I laud the Roach and the Baneling, especially with their Burrow micro, but two units are not enough to salvage a race -- especially when they have suffered so that the Hydralisk might be placed back into its 'rightful' tier.

Someone would be right to ask why I'm using "harassing" and "cliff-walking" as positive markers, and "defensive" as a negative one. The reason is, proactive units are interesting. They're exciting. They're the ones that change the game in a way that is visible, and usually marked with gasps coming from a watching audience. This isn't necessary for balanced gameplay... but it is necessary for creating gameplay that seems new and fresh, as opposed to a carbon copy of the original.

Whether they want to admit it or not, there is a core audience that Blizzard must appease, and that is the casual gamers that just want to see their units do something cool. It's too easy to fall into the trap of thinking, "Well we want gameplay first, screw superficial impressions." But that is a false dilemma. It is possible to have both, and the Terrans and Protoss have been demonstrating that for a long time. Seeing a Colossus run up a wall and destroy a line of Terran infantry is exciting, seeing a player use Stalker Blink micro to keep his units alive and destroy key enemy units is exciting. When was the last time we were excited about half of the Zerg line-up?

But the ties between these statistics and gameplay and balance should not go overlooked either. Tier-for-tier, the Terrans have more units that are capable of harassment, cliff-walking, and laying siege to an enemy base than the Zerg. And while the Terran has options as early as tier 2 in the form of Nukes and Siege Tanks, the Zerg must first survive until tier 3 to even have a chance to take advantage of his. And that is the key-word here -- options. Looking at these numbers it is simple fact that, tier-for-tier, the Terrans and Protoss have more options available to them than the Zerg. Will the Terran harass with Reapers or Hellions? Or will his infantry-heavy army with its Medivac support allow easy access to double-pumped Vikings? The Zerg, however, is forced to rely on a much more limited score of tactics, many of them lifted directly from StarCraft 1. We've all seen the Ultraling army and the Mutalisk terror squad, and so has the Zerg's opponent. The Zerg needs to be able to do more, especially during the middle game that has always been limiting.

The Solutions

Compared to other races, the Zerg are notably lacking in both the harassing and cliff-walking functions. Not only that, but many of their older units are lacking any flavor at all -- they are boring because in the best cases they are still completely functional but lacking any improvements (Zerglings, Mutalisks) and in the worst, their position in the tech tree is dictated by the latest shifting of the Baneling and Roach, which they now replace (Hydralisk).

So why not hit every single bird with one stone? How? Simple -- make the Hydralisk a cliff-walker, using its lengthy claws and slick bodies to get up and down surfaces. (1.) The Hydralisk instantly gains its own identity apart from "whatever the Roach is not this week," which it has been stuck with for a long time, being a wishy-washy vague anti-air unit. (2.) The Hydralisk's game is brought up ten years to take advantage of the new mechanics SC2 offers, opening up plenty of new tactics for the unit, as it and its race deserve. (3.) Its ranged attack makes it a perfect fit for the hit-and-run harassment tactics cliff-walking enables.... (4.) as does the Lurker into which it eventually transforms. In fact, providing the Lurker with cliff-walk as well would make it a much more powerful siege unit and harasser -- a true contender for heavy late-game production, to make that Ultralisk-spammer think twice. Finally, (5.) does the vision of a mass of self-reliant Hydralisks and Lurkers invading an enemy base from all sides by clamoring up the hills not scream "ZERG"?

Zerg gain 2 cliff-walkers, 2 harassers (it is much easier to get at workers when you can climb the side of a base's cliff than if you have to take the front entrance), 2 significant updates. The stats change to:

ZERG
13 units
(Zergling, Baneling, Roach, Hydralisk, Queen, Overlord, Overseer, Infestor, Corruptor, Brood Lord, Lurker, Ultralisk)
8 units new/significantly changed
(Baneling, Roach, Hydralisk, Queen, Overseer, Infestor, Corruptor, Lurker)
5 units old/not changed/minor changes
(Zergling, Overlord, Brood Lord, Ultralisk)
5 units potent harassers
(Zergling, Hydralisk, Mutalisk, Infestor, Lurker)
2 units cliff-walkers
(Hydralisk, Lurker)
2 units siege
(Brood Lord, Lurker)
2 units defensive
(Queen, Overlord)
2 units scouts
(Overlord, Overseer)

62% units new/significantly changed
38% units old/not changed/minor changes
38% units potent harassers
15% units cliff-walkers
15% units siege

Code:

STATISTICS REVISED - % T. P. Z. Changed 75 57 62 Unchanged 25 43 38 Harassment 50 43 38 Cliff-Walk 16 14 15 Siege 25 14 15

As you can tell by the removed D/S portion, not all of the Zerg's problems are solved -- but at least in most of the positive categories, they are brought up to par with where the other races have been for a long, long time. In light of these changes, maybe the macro-oriented abilities of some of the "D/S" tagged units can be viewed as advantages only, as they deserve to be.

Along with the Nydus Worm mechanic, this cliff-walking, adapting-on-the-fly Hydralisk/Lurker army makes mobility as much a trait of the Zerg as it has been of the Protoss (Warp-In) and Terrans (quick units, mobile structures, salvage) -- in a unique way that fits the swarming identity of the Zerg.

Alternate solutions were originally suggested in a Blizzforums thread: http://blizzforums.com/showthread.php?t=22671. While they are similar in tone (giving Cliff-Walking to Zerglings as a Tier 3 upgrade, etc) they were not as focused on solving actual gameplay hang-ups, so are not directly translatable to the issues at hand. However, they might be a great inspiration for new mechanics if the one proposed here is not favorable.

Disclaimer

Once again I'd like to say that due to the subjective nature of the statistics, I'm sure others will have different opinions on where specific units ended up (and where they did not), and I'll be happy to argue for any decisions that I made . . . though it should also be understood that complete and total agreement on every point should not be necessary to arrive at the same conclusion. In similar vein, the primary purpose of this article is not to push any single suggestion (as much as I might like this one), but to shed light on why the Zerg have seemed so underwhelming, and precisely how the numbers fall to back this up.

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

TL DR

No just kidding. You obviously put allot of work into this. That is commendable. My personal opinion is to wait until beta. From what ive read the zerg are behind but not by much.

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcherofAiur

TL DR

:D

Quote:

My personal opinion is to wait until beta. From what ive read the zerg are behind but not by much.

"Behind but not by much" seriously depends on what we are judging by. My goal here was never to demonstrate that the Zerg cannot win 1v1 against T/P, or worse yet, that they inherently cannot do it. Make an Ultralisk do enough damage and anything is possible.

But to emphasize one point I made in the analysis -- where the Zerg are hurting is in options. In the mid-game, a Terran can choose to harass a Zerg with Reapers, with Ghosts, with Hellions, and with Vikings at the very least. Each of these has COMPLETELY different counters that the Zerg must perform. What are the Zerg's options if he wishes to harass, however?

Zerglings and Mutalisks. The exact same units, for the exact same reasons, as in SC1. The Infestor is a capable harasser, but unfortunately until he gets Neural Parasite he only has one way of going about it, and until he researches faster burrow-movement, that way is slow.

As I said, tweak the stats enough and any unit will be able to do anything, and they could make Z win 100% if they wanted. Or 33%, if they get the numbers right. But that's far from enough, as we've seen the Terrans and Protoss are being held to a higher standard.

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

I don't know what you were trying to say here, honestly. You put a lot of statistics , but at the same time it's all very opinionated and a lot of the conclusions were based on your own intuition and not the statistics. Wait till Beta.

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hamshank

I don't know what you were trying to say here, honestly. You put a lot of statistics , but at the same time it's all very opinionated and a lot of the conclusions were based on your own intuition and not the statistics. Wait till Beta.

http://www.terminally-incoherent.com...5/facepalm.jpg

Zerg have less cliff-walking and harassing units than other races. This means they have fewer options.

Zerg have many of the same units as SC1. This means they have predictable options. It also means the units are not exciting, and will not impress gamers no matter how much damage they are raised to have.

How much simpler could I have put it? Beta will not fix this, unless they make changes... like the ones listed here. In which case, why wait for Beta?

If you'd read the OP, you'd know that I'm anticipating disagreement regarding where specific units were placed. So go ahead and disagree. Don't tell me what I already know -- that people will disagree. If you have nothing constructive to contribute....

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

You know what's really amazing and funny...even before you suggested it, just looking at those numbers, the first thing I thought of was to give the Hydralisk an upgrade to cliff-walking.

:eek:

I agree with it completely. I'm not sure if it would work out balance-wise to make cliff-walking an innate ability of the Hydralisk, but giving it as an upgrade (much like Blink is [last time I checked]) would suddenly open up a lot more interesting possibilities. Just one little change.

My approval to you, good sir!

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

You put Battlecruisers under minorly changed?
Really?

2 new Abilities? Completely new attack pattern? 600 HP?

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pandonetho

You put Battlecruisers under minorly changed?
Really?

2 new Abilities? Completely new attack pattern? 600 HP?

......and it will end up being used almost exactly as it was in the first game.

I agree with its placement as being minorly changed. 2 new abilities and more HP still places it in the exact same place it was in the first game, it just makes it slightly more effective in the area.

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pandonetho

You put Battlecruisers under minorly changed?
Really?

2 new Abilities? Completely new attack pattern? 600 HP?

Yea the statistics aren't even accurate. Like I said, good effort, very good effort, but lets just wait till Beta and get conclusions from people with keys like LOA and Demosquid and Gifted

Re: The Zerg Problem -- Statistical Analysis

Good read, and by the way I think you should take this yet-to-be-confirmed Roach trait into consideration:

Quote:

The build we played at BlizzCon wasn't the latest latest; we heard that Roaches could move while burrowed in the latest build, the BlizzCon build they could just burrow, but not move. Remember the balance of SC2 is constantly changing...

Source: http://starfeeder.gameriot.com/blogs...2-review/page5

-Psi